AGP Executive Report

Presidency: Ülle Madise has taken office as Estonia’s new president, pledging a firm Western course and support for Ukraine. Her first foreign visit is to Latvia, where talks focus on defence and regional security. Security: Defence Minister Martin Herem warned that Russia could test a NATO country after the war in Ukraine, aiming to undermine trust among allies. Estonia is also weighing light jets to counter Russian drones and will test nationwide emergency sirens on Wednesday. Cybersecurity: Ukrainian strikes on Yandex data centres disrupted the company’s Estonian websites, with reported traffic losses nearing 100%. Politics and public services: Isamaa topped parliamentary parties’ third-quarter donations with €229,301 as the election approaches. Estonia’s first plain-language standard has also taken effect, urging clearer public communications. Crime: A Belarusian man has been sent to court over alleged money laundering involving more than €861,000 in cash and cryptocurrency in three months.

Presidency: Ülle Madise took office on Monday, pledging to uphold Estonia’s Western course and support for Ukraine. She is due to meet Finland’s president on Wednesday to discuss regional security and defence. Security: Estonia will test nationwide emergency sirens on Wednesday from 3 to 3:10 p.m.; residents need take no action. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna also said the suspected Iran-linked incident at UK air base RAF Fairford has implications for Estonia’s security. Digital Resilience: Traffic from Russia’s Yandex network to Estonian websites fell 99.8% after Ukrainian strikes damaged data centres, but Estonia’s Information System Authority says this does not mean cyberattacks against the country will decline. Education: Schools taught 15 foreign languages last year, leaving some students unable to continue their chosen language in upper secondary school. Jobs: Telia plans to cut about 100 jobs in Estonia as part of 900 layoffs across its markets.

New President: Ülle Madise took office in Tallinn, calling for stronger defense, continued support for Ukraine and closer ties with Baltic and Nordic allies. She also urged Estonians to resist fear and pessimism. Defense and Diplomacy: Estonia is considering light fighter jets to intercept jet-powered drones, while Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna agreed with Ukraine’s Andrii Sybiha on tightening pressure on Russia and targeting supply chains supporting its war effort. Estonia also joined more than 30 countries condemning Iran over alleged attacks and covert activity. Sanctions: The EU approved nearly 1,600 new listings against Russia’s military-industrial network; Estonia’s foreign ministry said 743 people and 826 entities were added. Jobs: Telia plans to cut 100 jobs in Estonia as part of a wider 900-job restructuring aimed at saving about $100 million a year. Schools and Farming: A proposed rule would let parents request lessons in local dialects if at least 10 pupils want them. Grain growers, meanwhile, had one of their strongest harvests in years, with wheat yields at a 14-year high.

Security and Ukraine: Estonia’s defence minister says the country should consider light jet fighters to counter Russia’s new jet-powered drones, while Estonia and Ukraine are expanding a defence deal covering air defence and drone exports. Estonian volunteers have also delivered 13 vehicles to Ukrainian forces. Economy: Estonia’s goods exports rose 3% in August, but imports climbed 10%, widening the trade deficit to €360 million. Telia plans to cut about 100 jobs in Estonia as part of a 900-job group-wide restructuring; meanwhile, registered unemployment fell to 38,000 in the third quarter as vacancies increased. Migration: Police detained 10 Sudanese men found in Tallinn’s Nõmme district, and Estonia’s police chief warns that pressure at the Belarus border could rise in coming weeks. EU policy: Estonia is among the countries pressing for tighter Schengen visa rules for Russian citizens, with the European Commission expected to propose measures next year.

Russian Visa Curbs: Estonia is among the countries pressing the EU to tighten Schengen rules for Russian visitors. The Commission is expected to propose measures in January 2027, amid concerns about sabotage and other hybrid threats. Air Defence: Estonia’s defence minister says the country should consider light jet fighters to help counter Russia’s jet-powered drones, alongside stronger surveillance and layered defences. Ukraine Support: Estonia is seeking an EU debate on more aid for Ukraine, while the three Baltic states urge a ban on Russian grain transit through the bloc. Border Security: Police chief Egert Beličev warns migration pressure from Belarus could rise before freezing weather, alleging Moscow is helping channel migrants toward Europe. Arts: A charity auction by the Estonian Artists’ Association raised a record €2.3 million, enough to repay losses from a fraud scheme and support artists.

Ukraine Support: Prime Minister Kristen Michal urged the EU to discuss more aid for Ukraine, saying it could help destroy Russian oil refineries, and condemned the US-Russia diesel deal as a mistake. Russian Travel Curbs: Estonia is proposing an EU ban on former Russian combatants entering the bloc, assessed individually, amid concern over hybrid attacks. Art and Culture: A charity auction by the Estonian Artists’ Association raised a record €2.3 million, allowing it to repay losses from a fraud scheme ahead of schedule and support local artists. Critical Materials: Estonia is pressing NPM Silmet to end its reliance on Russian raw materials, with Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna suggesting early next year as a target.

Ukraine and Russia: Prime Minister Kristen Michal condemned the US-Russia diesel deal and urged Europe to boost aid so Ukraine can strike Russian oil refineries. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Europe will not ease pressure on Moscow. Defence: Estonia and Ukraine are expanding cooperation on air defence, drone exports and military support, while British troops in Estonia have deployed long-range strike drones for training. Russian supply links: Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna says NPM Silmet must set a deadline to end its reliance on Russian raw materials, with early 2027 a possible target. Foreign policy: Estonia condemned US sanctions on the International Criminal Court, calling it vital to the rules-based order. Domestic politics: The minority government faces a crucial budget battle ahead of elections, as a new poll puts the opposition Center Party first and support for governing Reform Party and Eesti 200 remains low.

Defence: British troops in Estonia have deployed Nyan attack drones with a range of more than 250 kilometres, launched using Estonian-made systems. In Kyiv, Defence Minister Martin Herem and President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed more air-defence funding and a drone-export deal that would give Estonia access to Ukrainian-made weapons and provide revenue for Kyiv. Politics: The Center Party has overtaken Isamaa to lead October party ratings at 23%; Isamaa fell to 19% and Reform to 10%. Public Finances: As the state budget reaches the Riigikogu, critics warn that planned savings defer costs rather than make structural changes, while debt and interest expenses are set to rise. Regional Policy: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are urging the EU to ban Russian grain transit, arguing Moscow should not profit from European routes while attacking Ukraine’s export infrastructure.

Ukraine Defense: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Estonian Defence Minister Martin Herem discussed new Estonian support for air defence and a drone-export package that could provide Ukraine with revenue and Estonia with battle-tested systems. Russian Threat: Estonia’s security chief says Russian sabotage has shifted from symbolic targets to disrupting defence suppliers, citing an August attack on robotics firm Milrem. EU Pressure: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged the EU to ban Russian grain transit, arguing Moscow is attacking Ukraine’s export routes while seeking routes for its own grain. Wind Power: Estonia proposes payments of up to €5 million per municipality to encourage wind-farm projects, with at least €12 million planned for 2027–28. Digital Economy: Justice and Digital Affairs Minister Liisa Pakosta invited Indian professionals and companies to use Estonia’s e-residency programme to establish EU businesses. US Fraud Case: Estonian basketball player Kerr Kriisa pleaded guilty to wire fraud in the US; sentencing is set for December 22.

Sanctions and Industry: Estonia persuaded the EU to remove a Russian rare-earth supplier from its draft sanctions list, saying the company supplies material to Estonia’s Silmet plant. Tallinn says it remains committed to sanctions and is seeking alternative sources. Border Security: Police and Border Guard Board chief Egert Belitšev warns migration pressure could rise as people try to leave Belarus before winter; most recent arrivals have crossed from Latvia, prompting stepped-up checks in Valga. Healthcare: New rules would require health centres to arrange temporary cover for up to three months when a family doctor leaves, while giving the Health Board a faster route to take over neglected patient lists. Fuel Costs: The government has ruled out cutting fuel excise, despite business calls for relief. Lux Express is raising fares on Tallinn–Narva and Tallinn–Pärnu routes as diesel costs climb. Tech Investment: Estonian space communications startup Golbriak Space has raised €4 million to expand production of laser terminals.

EU Sanctions: At Estonia’s request, the EU removed a Russian rare-metals supplier and its chief executive from a proposed sanctions list. The company supplies Estonia’s NPM Silmet, which is seeking alternative sources; Tallinn says it may revisit the listing next year. Press Protections: Estonia plans clearer legal privileges for journalists and other professions, potentially allowing them to withhold sensitive information from investigators. The move follows concerns over intercepted calls between lawyers and clients. Defense: Estonia’s defense investment agency has launched a tender worth up to €195 million for weapons, ammunition, training and support, with supplies required to come from NATO or EU countries. National Service: The conscription no-show rate fell to 2% in 2025, down from 4% the year before. Rally Estonia: The event will return to the World Rally Championship calendar on July 22–25, 2027.

Defense and Security: Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said British troops in Estonia are a vital part of NATO deterrence. Estonia also asked the EU to remove a Russian rare-earth supplier to local processor Silmet from its proposed sanctions list as the company seeks alternatives. Church-State Dispute: The Estonian Christian Orthodox Church and Pühtitsa Convent have taken to the European Court of Human Rights a law requiring them to sever ties with Moscow by December 28. Statehood: Parliament Speaker Lauri Hussar argued that Estonia’s continuity as a state cannot be changed by a simple parliamentary majority. Local Economy: A commentary warns that improved county centers have not stopped population decline, and says viable local businesses are key to towns’ futures. Estonia ranked 15th in the Fraser Institute’s economic freedom index. Cybercrime: The Estonian Center for Defence Investments lost nearly €60,000 in an email invoice scam in 2024; police closed the case without identifying the perpetrators.

Security: Estonia is moving the headquarters of its 1st Infantry Brigade from Tapa to Jõhvi, closer to Russia, as it shifts toward defending the border from the outset of a conflict. Separately, officials say falling numbers of boys could make it harder to fill conscript ranks; the target rises to 4,100 next year. Economy: Inflation accelerated to 3.5% in September, driven by fuel costs. Tallinn Airport, meanwhile, handled a record 356,000 passengers that month, though it expects winter traffic to ease. Health: Estonia’s health official says the country’s risk level has not risen after reports of a suspected plague case in Russia; the WHO is seeking further details from Moscow. Sport: Estonian team ACE / La Sportiva won the Adventure Racing World Championship in Corsica after more than 125 hours of racing. Business: Estonia-based ELEKS acquired a majority stake in ADM Interactive, with plans to expand the Estonian workforce and develop digital public services.

Defense & Transparency: Estonia’s defense industry group says state-funded firms supporting Ukraine should be publicly named, arguing secrecy via RKIK non-disclosure deals hides who benefits and what gets “combat credentials.” NATO Readiness: Estonia is taking part in NATO’s Steadfast Duel 26, rehearsing command and coordination procedures at EDF HQ as the alliance tests its war plans across all 32 member states. Security at the Border: Police and Border Guard expanded checks in Valga after a migrant surge, with document checks on trains and stricter controls at transport hubs. Economy: Statistics Estonia reports inflation jumped to 3.5% in September, driven mainly by housing and transport, while fuel costs surged. Healthcare Pressure: A critical shortage persists for specialized care: just over 2,000 people remain on the waiting list, with only about 700 ready to start immediately. Politics: Isamaa, the Center Party and EKRE are still drafting a no-confidence motion text against PM Kristen Michal, but can’t agree on wording. EU/World: Estonia and Iceland drew 0-0 in Nations League; Bulgaria beat Luxembourg 2-0.

Baltic Security & Russia: Latvia moved to declare Russian podcaster Alexander Ragozin persona non grata, accusing him of serving Russian interests amid rising Baltic unease over Moscow’s hybrid actions. Defense & Diplomacy: Germany’s foreign minister warned Russia may target more than Ukraine, naming Georgia, Moldova and the Baltics (including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) as possible future aims. EU Sanctions: The EU is set to approve a major new Russia sanctions package with about 1,650 new designations, heavily focused on the military-industrial complex. Estonia Border & Justice: Estonia’s justice ministry proposed tougher penalties for migrant smuggling, citing hybrid threats and a rise in illegal crossings. Economy & Jobs: airBaltic plans to cut up to 700 jobs as it restructures to a smaller fleet and tighter network. Education: Estonia’s teacher career model is driving a surge in senior/master-teacher applications, but higher pay is straining school budgets. Health: Cyprus and Estonia connected for cross-border e-prescriptions and patient summaries via MyHealth@EU. Local Governance & Crime: Ida-Virumaa vocational center director Hendrik Agur is suspected of fraud over false car-use compensation claims.

Border Security: Estonia’s Police and Border Guard Board has stepped up checks in Valga on the Latvia border after 41 people were detained over the past week, with authorities citing “secondary migration” and naming Somali, other East African, and also Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi nationals among those caught. Diplomacy: Estonia opened a permanent embassy in Chisinau as Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna visited Moldova; President Maia Sandu met him, praising Estonia’s support for Moldova’s EU path and resilience, including defence investment and cybersecurity help. Energy & Industry: Eurostat data show industrial producer prices rose 1.9% across the euro area and EU in August, with Cyprus up 0.2% month-on-month. Transport Planning: Estonia’s Climate Ministry is drafting a change to let professional truck drivers work longer in emergencies to protect supplies like fuel and medicines. Science & Tech: TalTech researchers used AI to predict gene edits to make oleaginous yeast produce more lipids and pigments faster. Justice & Crime: An Indian man accused of leading a neo-Nazi online child exploitation ring went on trial in Paris, facing life imprisonment if convicted.